25 Jun · 13:45 MESZLow · Coin Flip
GP
🇵🇱Grzegorz Poliniewicz
ELO 1637
FormWWLLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Poliniewicz
DP
🇵🇱Dmitrij Prokopcov
ELO 1625
FormLWLWL
51%
49%
Fair odds · Poliniewicz
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 39% · 2.57· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 32%Total ~80 pts
3-1
19%
3-2
19%
2-3
18%
1-3
18%
3-0
13%
Elo Gap+12
H2H0-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.