25 Jun · 15:05 MESZLow · Coin Flip
KS
🇵🇱Karol Sulkowski
ELO 1407
FormLLLLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Sulkowski
KK
🇵🇱Krzysztof Kotyl
ELO 1399
FormLLWLL
51%
49%
Fair odds · Sulkowski
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 52% · 1.93· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 32%Total ~75 pts
3-1
19%
3-2
19%
2-3
19%
1-3
18%
3-0
13%
Elo Gap+8
H2H16-12
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.