25 Jun · 15:55 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MM
🇵🇱Michal Minda
ELO 1453
FormLWWLW
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Minda
KK
🇵🇱Krzysztof Kotyl
ELO 1387
FormLLLLW
57%
43%
Fair odds · Minda
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
3-1
22%
3-2
20%
2-3
17%
1-3
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+66
H2H35-17
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+66)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (35-17)