25 Jun · 16:20 MESZElite · Strong Favorite
BM
🇵🇱Boguslaw Madej
ELO 1314
FormLWLLL
71%Win chancemodel fair 1.41Smolka
KS
🇵🇱Kamil Smolka
ELO 1519
FormWLLWW
29%
71%
Fair odds · Smolka
Model 71% · 1.41vsMarket 55% · 1.81· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 51%Total ~75 pts
1-3
27%
0-3
24%
2-3
21%
3-2
13%
3-1
10%
Elo Gap+205
H2H3-2
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+205)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (3-2)