4 Aug · 04:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
SG
🏆Simon Gauzy
ELO 1677
FormLWLWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Gauzy
YC
🏆Yuanyu Chen
ELO 1670
FormLWLLW
52%
48%
Fair odds · Gauzy
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 41% · 2.43· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 33%
3-1
19%
3-2
19%
2-3
18%
1-3
18%
3-0
13%
Elo Gap+7
H2H1-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.