4 Aug · 04:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
SA
🏆Sreeja Akula
ELO 1569
FormLLWLL
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Polcanova
SP
🏆Sofia Polcanova
ELO 1570
FormLWLWL
50%
50%
Fair odds · Polcanova
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 34% · 2.96· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 31%
1-3
19%
2-3
19%
3-2
19%
3-1
19%
0-3
13%
Elo Gap+1
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.