4 Aug · 04:00 MESZMedium · Model Lean
JY
🏆Jia Nan Yuan
ELO 1597
FormLLLWL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Pesotska
MP
🏆Margaryta Pesotska
ELO 1616
FormLLLWW
45%
55%
Fair odds · Pesotska
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 41% · 2.43· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%
1-3
21%
2-3
20%
3-2
18%
3-1
17%
0-3
15%
Elo Gap+19
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.