4 Aug · 04:00 MESZMedium · Model Lean
JZ
🏆Jian Zeng
ELO 1575
FormLWLLW
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Pavade
PP
🏆Prithika Pavade
ELO 1595
FormLWLLW
44%
56%
Fair odds · Pavade
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%
1-3
21%
2-3
20%
3-2
17%
3-1
16%
0-3
15%
Elo Gap+20
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.