8 Aug · 05:30 MESZMedium · Model Lean
SO
🏆Satsuki Odo
ELO 1876
FormWWLLW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Chen
XC
🏆Xingtong Chen
ELO 1892
FormWWLWW
45%
55%
Fair odds · Chen
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 68% · 1.48· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%
1-3
21%
2-3
20%
3-2
18%
3-1
17%
0-3
14%
Elo Gap+16
H2H1-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.