9 Aug · 05:15 MESZLow · Coin Flip
XC
🏆Xingtong Chen
ELO 1902
FormWWWLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Chen
MK
🏆Man Kuai
ELO 1899
FormWWWLW
51%
49%
Fair odds · Chen
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 32%
3-1
19%
3-2
19%
2-3
19%
1-3
18%
3-0
13%
Elo Gap+3
H2H4-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.