9 Aug · 06:45 MESZMedium · Model Lean
SM
🏆Sora Matsushima
ELO 1854
FormWWWWW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Harimoto
TH
🏆Tomokazu Harimoto
ELO 1871
FormWWWLW
45%
55%
Fair odds · Harimoto
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%
1-3
21%
2-3
20%
3-2
18%
3-1
17%
0-3
15%
Elo Gap+17
H2H4-1
Why this call
Why this pick? · 1 reason
- ✓Winning head-to-head (4-1)