3 Sept · 07:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
FM
🏆Fanbo Meng
ELO 1502
FormLWLWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Fang
BF
🏆Bo Fang
ELO 1514
FormLWLWW
46%
54%
Fair odds · Fang
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 72% · 1.38· vig 6%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%
1-3
20%
2-3
19%
3-2
18%
3-1
17%
0-3
14%
Elo Gap+12
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.