3 Sept · 09:20 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MS
🏆Manush Shah
ELO 1618
FormLLLWW
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Shah
LV
🏆Lev Volin
ELO 1597
FormWWWLW
56%
44%
Fair odds · Shah
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 73% · 1.37· vig 6%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%
3-1
21%
3-2
20%
2-3
17%
1-3
16%
3-0
15%
Elo Gap+21
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.