4 Sept · 08:45 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MP
🏆Maria Panfilova
ELO 1568
FormWWWLW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Kaufmann
AK
🏆Annett Kaufmann
ELO 1585
FormWLLWW
45%
55%
Fair odds · Kaufmann
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 79% · 1.26· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%
1-3
21%
2-3
20%
3-2
18%
3-1
17%
0-3
15%
Elo Gap+17
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.