8 Sept · 09:05 MESZMedium · Model Lean
AK
🏆Anton Kallberg
ELO 1639
FormLLLLL
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Kallberg
MS
🏆Manush Shah
ELO 1616
FormLWLLL
56%
44%
Fair odds · Kallberg
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 77% · 1.31· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%
3-1
21%
3-2
20%
2-3
17%
1-3
16%
3-0
15%
Elo Gap+23
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.