9 Sept · 07:55 MESZMedium · Model Lean
TP
🏆Tomislav Pucar
ELO 1617
FormLLLLW
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Pucar
AR
🏆Adrien Rassenfosse
ELO 1591
FormLWLWW
57%
43%
Fair odds · Pucar
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 73% · 1.37· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%
3-1
22%
3-2
20%
2-3
17%
1-3
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+26
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.