10 Sept · 05:00 MESZMedium · Model Lean
GK
🏆Guan-Hong Kuo
ELO 1606
FormLLWLW
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Duda
BD
🏆Benedikt Duda
ELO 1637
FormLWLWL
41%
59%
Fair odds · Duda
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 42% · 2.40· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%
1-3
22%
2-3
20%
3-2
17%
0-3
16%
3-1
15%
Elo Gap+31
H2H0-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.