9 Sept · 06:10 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MZ
🏆Mo Zhang
ELO 1541
FormLWLWL
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Zhang
LZ
🏆Lily Zhang
ELO 1521
FormLLLWL
56%
44%
Fair odds · Zhang
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 40% · 2.50· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%
3-1
21%
3-2
20%
2-3
17%
1-3
16%
3-0
15%
Elo Gap+20
H2H0-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.