9 Sept · 12:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
PP
🏆Prithika Pavade
ELO 1599
FormLWLWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Pavade
NB
🏆Natalia Bajor
ELO 1595
FormLLLLW
51%
49%
Fair odds · Pavade
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 56% · 1.78· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 32%
3-1
19%
3-2
19%
2-3
19%
1-3
18%
3-0
13%
Elo Gap+4
H2H0-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.