10 Sept · 13:40 MESZLow · Coin Flip
FC
🏆Flavien Coton
ELO 1643
FormWLLLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Kallberg
AK
🏆Anton Kallberg
ELO 1647
FormWLLLL
49%
51%
Fair odds · Kallberg
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 61% · 1.63· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 32%
1-3
19%
2-3
19%
3-2
18%
3-1
18%
0-3
13%
Elo Gap+4
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.