11 Sept · 12:30 MESZMedium · Model Lean
DM
🏆Dina Meshref
ELO 1503
FormWLWWL
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Zhang
LZ
🏆Lily Zhang
ELO 1525
FormWLLLW
44%
56%
Fair odds · Zhang
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 54% · 1.84· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%
1-3
21%
2-3
20%
3-2
17%
3-1
16%
0-3
15%
Elo Gap+22
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.