11 Sept · 14:15 MESZLow · Slight Edge
ST
🏆Shunsuke Togami
ELO 1772
FormWWWWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Moregard
TM
🏆Truls Moregard
ELO 1783
FormWLWWW
47%
53%
Fair odds · Moregard
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%
1-3
20%
2-3
19%
3-2
18%
3-1
17%
0-3
14%
Elo Gap+11
H2H4-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.