12 Sept · 05:00 MESZMedium · Model Lean
SO
🏆Satsuki Odo
ELO 1869
FormWWLWW
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Odo
HH
🏆Hina Hayata
ELO 1846
FormWWLWW
56%
44%
Fair odds · Odo
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 35% · 2.82· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%
3-1
21%
3-2
20%
2-3
17%
1-3
16%
3-0
15%
Elo Gap+23
H2H0-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.