16 Sept · 13:15 MESZLow · Slight Edge
SC
🏆Seoyeon Choi
ELO 1498
FormLWLLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Lyne
KL
🏆Karen Lyne
ELO 1507
FormWLLLW
47%
53%
Fair odds · Lyne
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 33%
1-3
20%
2-3
19%
3-2
18%
3-1
18%
0-3
14%
Elo Gap+9
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.