16 Sept · 12:40 MESZLow · Slight Edge
PW
🏆Phatsaraphon Wonglakhon
ELO 1520
FormLWWWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Wonglakhon
YD
🏆Yiyang Ding
ELO 1510
FormWLW
53%
47%
Fair odds · Wonglakhon
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 65% · 1.55· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%
3-1
20%
3-2
19%
2-3
18%
1-3
18%
3-0
14%
Elo Gap+10
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.