16 Sept · 07:20 MESZMedium · Model Lean
HC
🏆Hojun Choi
ELO 1529
FormWWWWL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Choi
KH
🏆Kwan Kit Ho
ELO 1511
FormLWLWW
55%
45%
Fair odds · Choi
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 35% · 2.82· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%
3-1
21%
3-2
20%
2-3
18%
1-3
17%
3-0
15%
Elo Gap+18
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.