17 Sept · 06:10 MESZLow · Coin Flip
EK
🏆Eunseo Kim
ELO 1519
FormWLWLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Kim
XC
🏆Xianchang Chen
ELO 1517
FormWWWWL
51%
49%
Fair odds · Kim
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 38% · 2.67· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 32%
3-1
19%
3-2
19%
2-3
19%
1-3
19%
3-0
13%
Elo Gap+2
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.