17 Sept · 06:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MZ
🏆Mo Zhang
ELO 1546
FormWLLWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Zhang
CF
🏆Chiko Fujita
ELO 1530
FormWWWW
54%
46%
Fair odds · Zhang
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 65% · 1.55· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%
3-1
20%
3-2
20%
2-3
18%
1-3
17%
3-0
14%
Elo Gap+16
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.