17 Sept · 06:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
KL
🏆Karen Lyne
ELO 1514
FormWWLLL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Heo
YH
🏆Yerim Heo
ELO 1530
FormWLLLW
46%
54%
Fair odds · Heo
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 61% · 1.65· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%
1-3
21%
2-3
20%
3-2
18%
3-1
17%
0-3
14%
Elo Gap+16
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.