17 Sept · 06:10 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JX
🏆Junlin Xiang
ELO 1529
FormWWWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Shao
JS
🏆Jieni Shao
ELO 1536
FormWLWWL
48%
52%
Fair odds · Shao
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 42% · 2.36· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 33%
1-3
20%
2-3
19%
3-2
18%
3-1
18%
0-3
13%
Elo Gap+7
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.