17 Sept · 07:20 MESZMedium · Model Lean
CC
🏆Chia-Chuan Chuang
ELO 1505
FormWWWWL
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Pal
AP
🏆Akash Pal
ELO 1531
FormWLLLW
43%
57%
Fair odds · Pal
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 71% · 1.42· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%
1-3
22%
2-3
20%
3-2
17%
3-1
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+26
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.