17 Sept · 06:10 MESZLow · Coin Flip
HL
🏆Haelin Lee
ELO 1507
FormW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Lee
YL
🏆Yihui Li
ELO 1506
FormWLWW
50%
50%
Fair odds · Lee
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 41% · 2.43· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 31%
3-1
19%
3-2
19%
2-3
19%
1-3
19%
3-0
13%
Elo Gap+1
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.