17 Sept · 12:15 MESZLow · Slight Edge
YL
🏆Yihui Li
ELO 1515
FormWWLWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Lyne
KL
🏆Karen Lyne
ELO 1521
FormWWWLL
48%
52%
Fair odds · Lyne
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 38% · 2.63· vig 11%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 33%
1-3
19%
2-3
19%
3-2
18%
3-1
18%
0-3
13%
Elo Gap+6
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.