17 Sept · 14:25 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JM
🏆Joao Monteiro
ELO 1521
FormWWLWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Monteiro
CC
🏆Chia-Chuan Chuang
ELO 1513
FormWWWWW
52%
48%
Fair odds · Monteiro
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 58% · 1.72· vig 11%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 33%
3-1
20%
3-2
19%
2-3
18%
1-3
18%
3-0
13%
Elo Gap+8
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.