1 Oct · 07:55 MESZMedium · Model Lean
ML
🏆Ming Ying Loy
ELO 1460
FormLLLWW
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Malobabic
IM
🏆Ivana Malobabic
ELO 1483
FormLLWWL
44%
56%
Fair odds · Malobabic
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 27% · 3.72· vig 6%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%
1-3
21%
2-3
20%
3-2
17%
3-1
16%
0-3
15%
Elo Gap+23
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.