1 Oct · 09:05 MESZMedium · Model Lean
WV
🏆Wim Verdonschot
ELO 1661
FormLWWWW
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Verdonschot
VU
🏆Vladislav Ursu
ELO 1630
FormLWWLW
59%
41%
Fair odds · Verdonschot
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 56% · 1.78· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%
3-1
22%
3-2
20%
2-3
17%
3-0
16%
1-3
15%
Elo Gap+31
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.