2 Oct · 12:35 MESZLow · Slight Edge
IB
🏆Ivor Ban
ELO 1578
FormWLWLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Ban
DK
🏆Deni Kozul
ELO 1567
FormWLWWL
53%
47%
Fair odds · Ban
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%
3-1
20%
3-2
19%
2-3
18%
1-3
17%
3-0
14%
Elo Gap+11
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.