2 Oct · 13:45 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MK
🏆Maciej Kubik
ELO 1536
FormLLWWL
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Pitchford
LP
🏆Liam Pitchford
ELO 1565
FormWLLWL
42%
58%
Fair odds · Pitchford
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 49% · 2.05· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%
1-3
22%
2-3
20%
3-2
17%
0-3
16%
3-1
15%
Elo Gap+29
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.