2 Oct · 13:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
NA
🏆Nicole Arlia
ELO 1498
FormLLLWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Diaconu
AD
🏆Adina Diaconu
ELO 1509
FormWLWLL
47%
53%
Fair odds · Diaconu
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 69% · 1.45· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%
1-3
20%
2-3
19%
3-2
18%
3-1
17%
0-3
14%
Elo Gap+11
H2H0-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.