2 Oct · 14:20 MESZMedium · Model Lean
SZ
🏆Sofia Xuan Zhang
ELO 1442
FormWLWLL
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Wegrzyn
KW
🏆Katarzyna Wegrzyn
ELO 1470
FormWLWLW
42%
58%
Fair odds · Wegrzyn
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%
1-3
22%
2-3
20%
3-2
17%
0-3
16%
3-1
16%
Elo Gap+28
H2H0-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.