3 Oct · 06:10 MESZMedium · Model Lean
BC
🏆Baldwin Chan
ELO 1577
FormWLWWL
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Hung
JH
🏆Jing-Kai Hung
ELO 1597
FormWLWWW
44%
56%
Fair odds · Hung
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%
1-3
21%
2-3
20%
3-2
17%
3-1
16%
0-3
15%
Elo Gap+20
H2H0-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.