4 Oct · 12:35 MESZLow · Coin Flip
TP
🏆Tomislav Pucar
ELO 1609
FormLWLLL
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Pucar
MS
🏆Manush Shah
ELO 1608
FormLLWLL
50%
50%
Fair odds · Pucar
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 69% · 1.45· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 31%
3-1
19%
3-2
19%
2-3
19%
1-3
19%
3-0
13%
Elo Gap+1
H2H1-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.