7 Oct · 05:00 MESZMedium · Model Lean
YF
🏆Yi-Hsin Feng
ELO 1628
FormWLLWL
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Feng
AR
🏆Adrien Rassenfosse
ELO 1604
FormWLLWL
57%
43%
Fair odds · Feng
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 63% · 1.58· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%
3-1
21%
3-2
20%
2-3
17%
1-3
16%
3-0
15%
Elo Gap+24
H2H1-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.