8 Oct · 12:35 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AL
🏆Alexis Lebrun
ELO 1777
FormWWLWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Lebrun
WJ
🏆Woojin Jang
ELO 1769
FormWLLWW
52%
48%
Fair odds · Lebrun
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 33%
3-1
20%
3-2
19%
2-3
18%
1-3
18%
3-0
13%
Elo Gap+8
H2H1-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.