9 Oct · 01:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
FL
🏆Felix Lebrun
ELO 1906
FormWWWLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Lebrun
HC
🏆Hugo Calderano
ELO 1893
FormWWWLW
54%
46%
Fair odds · Lebrun
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 69% · 1.45· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%
3-1
20%
3-2
19%
2-3
18%
1-3
17%
3-0
14%
Elo Gap+13
H2H6-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.