9 Oct · 01:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
TM
🏆Truls Moregard
ELO 1822
FormWWWWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Moregard
YL
🏆Yun-Ju Lin
ELO 1814
FormWWWLL
52%
48%
Fair odds · Moregard
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 41% · 2.43· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 33%
3-1
20%
3-2
19%
2-3
18%
1-3
18%
3-0
14%
Elo Gap+8
H2H1-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.