10 Oct · 11:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MW
🏆Manyu Wang
ELO 2010
FormWWWWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Wang
MH
🏆Miwa Harimoto
ELO 1995
FormWWWWL
54%
46%
Fair odds · Wang
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 73% · 1.37· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%
3-1
20%
3-2
20%
2-3
18%
1-3
17%
3-0
14%
Elo Gap+15
H2H8-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.