29 Oct · 14:55 MEZMedium · Model Lean
CJ
🏆Cheonhui Joo
ELO 1724
FormLLLWW
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Joo
AD
🏆Adriana Diaz
ELO 1693
FormLLLWW
59%
41%
Fair odds · Joo
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 67% · 1.49· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%
3-1
22%
3-2
20%
2-3
17%
3-0
16%
1-3
15%
Elo Gap+31
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.