29 Oct · 13:10 MEZLow · Coin Flip
PX
🏆Peng Xiang
ELO 1656
FormLWLWL
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Ovtcharov
DO
🏆Dimitrij Ovtcharov
ELO 1656
FormLLWLW
50%
50%
Fair odds · Ovtcharov
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 42% · 2.36· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 31%
1-3
19%
2-3
19%
3-2
19%
3-1
19%
0-3
13%
Elo Gap+0
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.