4 Nov · 14:20 MEZLow · Slight Edge
SO
🏆Satsuki Odo
ELO 1849
FormLLWWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Sato
HS
🏆Hitomi Sato
ELO 1858
FormWLWWL
47%
53%
Fair odds · Sato
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 18% · 5.70· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 33%
1-3
20%
2-3
19%
3-2
18%
3-1
18%
0-3
14%
Elo Gap+9
H2H0-8
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.